Bitcoin traded mostly sideways below $120,000 throughout the day, even as broader market sentiment remained bullish.
Momentum leaned toward altcoins, with several analysts pointing to signs of an emerging altseason.
By late Friday, Bitcoin had pared back its weekly gains.
With risk-on sentiment back in full force, the total cryptocurrency market cap briefly crossed the $4 trillion mark for the first time before easing to around $3.9 trillion at press time.
Friday’s sentiment metrics pointed to a subtle but notable shift in market dynamics.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index slipped to 73, down one point, while the Altcoin Season Index rose nearly 10 points to 47.
The data suggests investors may be reassessing their positions, favouring altcoins amid broader optimism.
Such periods, when a growing number of altcoins outperform Bitcoin, are commonly referred to as an altseason.
Will Bitcoin go up?
The macro trend for Bitcoin remains intact, though its 3% drop in dominance over the past day indicates reduced short-term strength as funds flow into outperforming altcoins.
Traders appear to be rotating into altcoins, many of which have posted double-digit gains in recent sessions.
However, Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains bullish, supported by strong technical patterns.
According to trader Merlijn, a classic bullish indicator has reappeared on the daily chart.
On Thursday, he highlighted the formation of a golden cross, when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 200-day SMA. See below.
THE BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS JUST HIT
Every. Single. Time. This signal shows up $BTC goes vertical:
2016 → +139%
2017 → +2200%
2020 → +1190%
Now it’s flashing again in 2025.
Same setup. Same signal.
Miss this and you’ll remember it forever.
Bitcoin is about to leave orbit.
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Historically, this signal has preceded major Bitcoin rallies, including the 2,000% surges seen in 2017 and 2020.
The most recent golden cross was confirmed on May 22, when BTC/USD traded at around $107,000.
Since then, Bitcoin has gained approximately 12%.
Although modest by past standards, the pattern still offers scope for further upside.
Merlijn pointed out that even a short-lived golden cross, like the one seen in 2016, would project a target of around $155,000.
Some analysts say Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase is laying the groundwork for the next leg up.
Rekt Capital, a widely followed crypto trader, noted on Friday that a daily close above the $120,000 range high, followed by a successful retest, would confirm a breakout to new highs.
#BTC
Bitcoin remains in the Range and the consolidation continues, facilitating further money flow into Altcoins
Daily Close above ~$120k Range High resistance followed by a post-breakout retest would see Bitcoin confirm a breakout to new highs
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
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Short-term hesitation aside, both technical indicators and analyst commentary suggest that Bitcoin remains positioned for further price discovery.
Targets between $135,000 and $155,000 are now emerging as the next key milestones if bullish momentum resumes.
When writing, Bitcoin was hovering around $118,000 with no gains on the weekly timeframe.
Charts say altseason is here
Since the low recorded on July 5, the total altcoin market cap has surged over 30%, reaching approximately $1.579 trillion by Friday, July 18.
The rise comes as Bitcoin’s dominance slipped to 60.8%, its lowest level since mid-March, according to CoinMarketCap.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s market share rose to 11.2%, marking its highest dominance since late January 2025.
Ethereum has led the charge among top altcoins, climbing 43% over the past 30 days.
The asset was trading above $3,600 at press time, with a market cap of $437.34 billion.
Analysts point to Ethereum’s recent momentum as a key signal of capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into altcoins.
The Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass stood at 47 on Friday, placing the market nearly halfway between Bitcoin season and altseason.
While technically not yet in full altseason territory, several traders say current conditions match the start of previous altcoin-led rallies.
Among them is veteran trader Peter Brandt, who declared that altseason is already underway.
It’s altcoin season
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Brandt and others have pointed to long-term breakout patterns on major altcoin indices, including TOTAL2 and TOTAL3, as evidence that the broader altcoin market is preparing for further gains.
TOTAL3, which tracks the market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, recently broke out from a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern.
According to trader Jelle, the setup could unfold into a move from $1.1 trillion to $1.98 trillion, which would represent gains of roughly 100%, if the breakout holds.
#Altcoins have broken out from the multi-year cup & handle!
One last hurdle to overcome, but once this clears 1.1T – everything goes nuts.
Time for our patience to be rewarded. Finally.
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Brandt highlighted a similar structure on TOTAL2, which excludes only Bitcoin.
The projected target for that breakout stands at $2.78 trillion, implying a potential 97% rally for the total altcoin market cap.
Ether’s 24% gain in the past seven days has added further fuel to the rally, and analysts believe both retail and institutional investors that altcoins are poised to catch up after months of underperformance.
“These six months are going to be phenomenal for Altcoins,” said Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, commenting on Ethereum’s current rally.
Among the top weekly gainers, Curve DAO Token (CRV) rallied 47.59%, followed by Bonk (BONK) with a 44.49% gain, and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) up 40.86%.
Source: CoinMarketCap.
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