Zcash’s September rally has given way to a substantial correction, with ZEC trading near $1,319 on October 7 as technical indicators suggest the pullback could extend.
The retreat from its late-September peak around $1,700 has brought the token close to a previously identified downside zone of $1,220–$1,300.
Weekly Fibonacci levels and a developing daily bear pennant now point to additional downside scenarios.
However, the pennant requires a confirmed breakdown before its projected target becomes more relevant.
September momentum warning gives way to a correction
Last month, analysts identified a bearish divergence in Zcash’s Relative Strength Index as the price approached resistance between $1,700 and $1,750.
That divergence indicated weakening momentum despite rising prices and supported the possibility of a retreat toward 1,220–1,300.
ZEC subsequently pushed higher before reversing. Its October 7 price near $1,319 leaves it just above the upper boundary of that projected correction zone.
The reversal suggests that buyers have struggled to sustain the pace of September’s advance, although reaching a previously forecast area does not establish where the decline will end.
On the weekly chart, Zcash has slipped below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near $1,722 after failing to sustain its move toward recent highs.
The supplied analysis identifies the 1.618 Fibonacci level around $1,136 as the next important downside reference. A move from $1,319 to that level would represent a decline of approximately 14%.
Further below, the rising 20-week exponential moving average stands near $900.
Together, those levels define a broad potential support region between $900 and $1,136, rather than a tightly clustered support zone.
A test of $900 would imply a decline of roughly 32% from $1,319, although the moving average’s position will change over time.
Zcash’s weekly RSI remains around the mid-60s after recently approaching overbought territory.
That reading indicates momentum is still relatively strong, but has cooled from its earlier extremes. It also leaves room for further normalization if selling continues.
The weekly setup therefore supports a possible retracement toward $1,136, with the 20-week EMA becoming a deeper reference if pressure intensifies. These remain conditional technical scenarios.
Daily bear pennant points toward $986–$1,000
On the daily chart, ZEC is developing a potential bear pennant following a sharp decline from approximately $1,650.
The initial drop was followed by tightening consolidation around 1,300–1,400. A decisive break below the formation’s lower trendline would support a bearish continuation interpretation.
Using the height of the preceding decline, the analysis projects a possible target between $986 and $1,000. That would represent roughly 24%–25% downside from $1,319.
The target sits near the rising 100-day EMA around $953, creating a broader support region between approximately $950 and $1,000.
Until a breakdown occurs, the pennant remains a developing pattern. Zcash’s next move will depend on whether buyers can stabilize the consolidation or sellers push the price below its lower boundary.
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